The Open
156-player field · cut: top 70 and ties after 36 holes. Model probabilities re-simulated on every scoring update; contract prices from Kalshi. Event page →
Field
156
players entered
Markets matched
146
154 unmatched
Model skill-mc-v0.3
Gated ✓
publishing to the ledger
Last simulation
02:59
UTC · 10,000 paths
| Player | Model make-cut probability | YES bid / ask | EV (YES, net of fees) | EV (NO, net of fees) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ren Yonezawa | 56.5% | 30¢ / 34¢ | +$0.20 | −$0.28 |
| Alistair Docherty | 51.3% | 29¢ / 33¢ | +$0.16 | −$0.24 |
| James Nicholas | 40.3% | 26¢ / 28¢ | +$0.10 | −$0.16 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 72.2% | 57¢ / 60¢ | +$0.10 | −$0.17 |
| Ryutaro Nagano | 38.8% | 24¢ / 27¢ | +$0.10 | −$0.17 |
| Peter Uihlein | 34.8% | 23¢ / 24¢ | +$0.09 | −$0.14 |
| Padraig Harrington | 25.7% | 36¢ / 40¢ | −$0.16 | +$0.08 |
| Jake Knapp | 62.1% | 50¢ / 52¢ | +$0.08 | −$0.14 |
| Stewart Cink | 38.0% | 48¢ / 52¢ | −$0.16 | +$0.08 |
| David Puig | 61.9% | 49¢ / 52¢ | +$0.08 | −$0.15 |
| Marcus Plunkett | 22.5% | 13¢ / 14¢ | +$0.07 | −$0.10 |
| Corey Conners | 52.7% | 62¢ / 63¢ | −$0.12 | +$0.07 |
| Scott Vincent | 58.2% | 44¢ / 49¢ | +$0.07 | −$0.16 |
| Caleb Surratt | 39.2% | 27¢ / 30¢ | +$0.07 | −$0.14 |
| Shaun Norris | 50.0% | 38¢ / 41¢ | +$0.07 | −$0.14 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 20.3% | 29¢ / 31¢ | −$0.13 | +$0.07 |
| Travis Smyth | 20.1% | 28¢ / 34¢ | −$0.16 | +$0.06 |
| Laurie Canter | 42.1% | 50¢ / 51¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.06 |
| Austen Truslow | 17.4% | 25¢ / 26¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.06 |
| Shane Lowry | 63.6% | 71¢ / 72¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.05 |
| Jason Day | 63.3% | 53¢ / 56¢ | +$0.05 | −$0.12 |
| Wyndham Clark | 75.2% | 67¢ / 68¢ | +$0.05 | −$0.10 |
| Matthew Jordan | 41.0% | 48¢ / 50¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.05 |
| Sam Burns | 74.9% | 67¢ / 68¢ | +$0.05 | −$0.10 |
| Justin Rose | 64.1% | 71¢ / 72¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.05 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 77.2% | 83¢ / 84¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.05 |
| Matthew Southgate | 22.5% | 29¢ / 30¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.05 |
| Francesco Laporta | 44.2% | 33¢ / 38¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.13 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 69.8% | 76¢ / 78¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.04 |
| Lev Grinberg | 13.9% | 20¢ / 23¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.04 |
| Mason Howell | 9.9% | 15¢ / 17¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.04 |
| Keita Nakajima | 56.0% | 46¢ / 50¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.12 |
| Kota Kaneko | 51.0% | 43¢ / 45¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.10 |
| Brian Harman | 56.0% | 62¢ / 64¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.04 |
| Daniel Brown | 39.0% | 45¢ / 48¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.04 |
| Aaron Rai | 62.1% | 68¢ / 70¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.04 |
| John Parry | 48.2% | 54¢ / 55¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.04 |
| Lucas Herbert | 55.8% | 45¢ / 50¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.13 |
| Cameron John | 24.8% | 14¢ / 19¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.12 |
| Tiger Christensen | 12.3% | 18¢ / 21¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.04 |
| Xander Schauffele | 69.4% | 75¢ / 76¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.04 |
| Andrew Novak | 46.6% | 52¢ / 56¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.03 |
| Josele Ballester | 43.3% | 34¢ / 38¢ | +$0.03 | −$0.11 |
| Antoine Rozner | 46.3% | 39¢ / 41¢ | +$0.03 | −$0.09 |
| Kazuki Higa | 35.0% | 26¢ / 30¢ | +$0.03 | −$0.11 |
| Alex Noren | 57.3% | 62¢ / 63¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.03 |
| Jordan Spieth | 54.3% | 59¢ / 62¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.03 |
| Andy Sullivan | 41.5% | 46¢ / 49¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.03 |
| Francesco Molinari | 41.6% | 46¢ / 49¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Tom McKibbin | 51.9% | 56¢ / 59¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Min Woo Lee | 64.0% | 68¢ / 70¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.02 |
| Sepp Straka | 47.0% | 51¢ / 56¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.02 |
| Dan Bradbury | 43.9% | 37¢ / 40¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.09 |
| Ben Griffin | 69.9% | 65¢ / 66¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 66.1% | 70¢ / 71¢ | −$0.07 | +$0.02 |
| Rickie Fowler | 59.2% | 63¢ / 65¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.02 |
| Michael Kim | 51.2% | 55¢ / 58¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Pierceson Coody | 55.6% | 48¢ / 52¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.10 |
| Jon Rahm | 81.6% | 77¢ / 78¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Keith Mitchell | 62.5% | 58¢ / 59¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 64.5% | 60¢ / 61¢ | +$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 45.3% | 40¢ / 42¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.07 |
| Ryan Fox | 55.8% | 59¢ / 62¢ | −$0.08 | +$0.01 |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 23.1% | 16¢ / 20¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.08 |
| J.J. Spaun | 69.0% | 63¢ / 66¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.08 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 60.1% | 63¢ / 64¢ | −$0.06 | +$0.01 |
| Tom Kim | 65.1% | 68¢ / 69¢ | −$0.06 | +$0.01 |
| Adam Scott | 58.1% | 61¢ / 62¢ | −$0.06 | +$0.01 |
| Thomas Detry | 58.7% | 52¢ / 56¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.09 |
| Maverick McNealy | 65.7% | 62¢ / 63¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.06 |
| Viktor Hovland | 70.3% | 73¢ / 75¢ | −$0.07 | +$0.01 |
| Haotong Li | 46.4% | 49¢ / 53¢ | −$0.09 | +$0.01 |
| Jackson Suber | 54.6% | 50¢ / 52¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.07 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 63.6% | 66¢ / 67¢ | −$0.05 | +$0.00 |
| MJ Daffue | 34.3% | 28¢ / 32¢ | +$0.00 | −$0.08 |
| Sami Välimäki | 49.1% | 46¢ / 47¢ | +$0.00 | −$0.05 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 59.0% | 54¢ / 57¢ | +$0.00 | −$0.07 |
| Bud Cauley | 56.0% | 58¢ / 59¢ | −$0.05 | +$0.00 |
| Cameron Young | 72.0% | 69¢ / 70¢ | −$0.00 | −$0.05 |
| Sungjae Im | 47.1% | 49¢ / 53¢ | −$0.08 | −$0.00 |
| Joaquín Niemann | 69.7% | 67¢ / 68¢ | −$0.00 | −$0.05 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 58.6% | 56¢ / 57¢ | −$0.00 | −$0.05 |
| Marco Penge | 47.5% | 49¢ / 50¢ | −$0.05 | −$0.00 |
| Harris English | 63.6% | 65¢ / 67¢ | −$0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 88.3% | 87¢ / 88¢ | −$0.01 | −$0.02 |
| Rory McIlroy | 80.7% | 82¢ / 83¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Eric Cole | 58.3% | 54¢ / 57¢ | −$0.01 | −$0.06 |
| Alex Smalley | 58.2% | 53¢ / 57¢ | −$0.01 | −$0.07 |
| Patrick Reed | 66.9% | 68¢ / 69¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Justin Thomas | 65.9% | 67¢ / 68¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Matt Wallace | 58.0% | 59¢ / 61¢ | −$0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Sam Stevens | 48.0% | 49¢ / 53¢ | −$0.07 | −$0.01 |
| Daniel Berger | 49.9% | 47¢ / 49¢ | −$0.01 | −$0.05 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 80.1% | 81¢ / 82¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 49.2% | 50¢ / 51¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Jesper Svensson | 46.3% | 47¢ / 48¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Max Greyserman | 50.5% | 51¢ / 53¢ | −$0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Si Woo Kim | 73.5% | 72¢ / 73¢ | −$0.01 | −$0.04 |
| Keegan Bradley | 62.4% | 60¢ / 62¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.04 |
| Michael Brennan | 50.4% | 47¢ / 50¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.05 |
| Collin Morikawa | 73.4% | 70¢ / 73¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.05 |
| Sahith Theegala | 53.4% | 52¢ / 53¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.03 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 53.3% | 51¢ / 53¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.04 |
| Billy Horschel | 42.7% | 43¢ / 47¢ | −$0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Ryan Gerard | 63.3% | 58¢ / 63¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Cameron Smith | 56.3% | 55¢ / 56¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.03 |
| Adrien Saddier | 40.8% | 41¢ / 43¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Gary Woodland | 53.9% | 54¢ / 55¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Daniel Hillier | 51.1% | 49¢ / 51¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.04 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 69.0% | 69¢ / 70¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Russell Henley | 71.0% | 71¢ / 73¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 70.9% | 69¢ / 71¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.04 |
| Harry Hall | 53.1% | 53¢ / 57¢ | −$0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Casey Jarvis | 53.1% | 53¢ / 54¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Chris Gotterup | 70.8% | 67¢ / 71¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.06 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 59.8% | 59¢ / 60¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.03 |
| Michael Hollick | 35.8% | 32¢ / 36¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.06 |
| Frederic LaCroix | 34.8% | 30¢ / 35¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.07 |
| Brooks Koepka | 56.2% | 56¢ / 57¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Nick Taylor | 57.6% | 56¢ / 58¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.04 |
| Victor Perez | 60.4% | 60¢ / 61¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.02 |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 48.6% | 43¢ / 49¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.08 |
| J.T. Poston | 56.6% | 53¢ / 57¢ | −$0.02 | −$0.06 |
| Max Homa | 55.4% | 53¢ / 56¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.04 |
| Ludvig Åberg | 70.7% | 70¢ / 72¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.03 |
| Sam Bairstow | 33.1% | 32¢ / 34¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.03 |
| Joe Dean | 40.0% | 39¢ / 42¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.03 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 49.9% | 46¢ / 51¢ | −$0.03 | −$0.06 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 33.3% | 32¢ / 35¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.03 |
| Kazuma Kobori | 38.3% | 37¢ / 42¢ | −$0.06 | −$0.03 |
| Jeong-Woo Ham | 23.3% | 22¢ / 28¢ | −$0.07 | −$0.03 |
| Henrik Stenson | 35.6% | 34¢ / 38¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.04 |
| Martin Couvra | 39.8% | 38¢ / 42¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.04 |
13 players with limited scoring history (model estimates are prior-dominated and unreliable — shown for completeness, excluded from analysis)
| Player | Model make-cut probability | YES bid / ask | EV (YES, net of fees) | EV (NO, net of fees) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Howard | 24.1% | 6¢ / 8¢ | +$0.15 | −$0.19 |
| Jiho Yang | 24.3% | 11¢ / 14¢ | +$0.09 | −$0.14 |
| Darren Clarke | 11.7% | 23¢ / 28¢ | −$0.18 | +$0.09 |
| Tim Wiedemeyer | 38.0% | 23¢ / 27¢ | +$0.09 | −$0.17 |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 2.8% | 10¢ / 14¢ | −$0.12 | +$0.06 |
| David Duval | 2.4% | 9¢ / 11¢ | −$0.10 | +$0.06 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 3.1% | 9¢ / 13¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.05 |
| Alejandro de Castro Piera | 24.5% | 16¢ / 18¢ | +$0.05 | −$0.10 |
| Jack Buchanan | 21.3% | 14¢ / 18¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.08 |
| Stuart Grehan | 24.7% | 21¢ / 22¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.06 |
| Thomas Sloman | 5.8% | 7¢ / 9¢ | −$0.04 | +$0.00 |
| Nevill Ruiter | 8.9% | 10¢ / 12¢ | −$0.04 | +$0.00 |
| Jack McDonald | 18.8% | 20¢ / 24¢ | −$0.07 | −$0.01 |