Every call we’ve ever published, unedited.
Each published probability is written to an append-only, SHA-256-hash-chained ledger at publication time — timestamp, market, model probability, contract price, model version. No retroactive edits, ever.
Published calls
22
every line hash-chained
Settled
0
22 open
Brier score
0.164
over 0 settled calls
Calibration slope
10 bins
see FIG. 2
FIG. 2 — CALIBRATION, ALL SETTLED CALLS (n = 0)
Dot size ∝ number of calls in bin. Points on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated.
HOW THIS LEDGER WORKS
Each line commits to the entire history before it through a SHA-256 hash chain — a retroactive edit changes every subsequent chain head, so the record is verifiable by anyone, not merely trusted. Each row carries the MLflow model version that produced it, and the contract price at the moment of publication. Tournaments with no qualifying analysis still get a “no-call” line.
If a model version fails a validation gate, its outputs are never published — there is no partial credit.
PUBLISHED (UTC)MARKETPLAYERMODEL PPRICEMODELOUTCOME
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Wyndham Clark75.2%68¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Jason Day63.3%56¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Shane Lowry63.6%71¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Austen Truslow17.4%25¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Laurie Canter42.1%50¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Travis Smyth20.1%28¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Matthew Baldwin20.3%29¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Shaun Norris50.0%41¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Caleb Surratt39.2%30¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Scott Vincent58.2%49¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Corey Conners52.7%62¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Marcus Plunkett22.5%14¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957David Puig61.9%52¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Stewart Cink38.0%48¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Jake Knapp62.1%52¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Padraig Harrington25.7%36¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Peter Uihlein34.8%24¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Ryutaro Nagano38.8%27¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Bryson DeChambeau72.2%60¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957James Nicholas40.3%28¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Alistair Docherty51.3%33¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Ren Yonezawa56.5%34¢skill-mc-v0.3Open
The full ledger is queryable and exportable — see docs/verifying-the-ledger.md for independent verification.