The Open: model probability vs. market price, re-priced as scores post.
Field of 156 — cut: top 70 and ties after 36 holes. The 10,000-path field simulation reprices every make-cut contract as scores post.
Projected cut
top 70
and ties after 36 holes
Live edges flagged
56
≥ 5.0-point threshold
Simulations
10,000
last run 02:59:28 UTC
Model skill-mc-v0.3
Gated ✓
DSR 1.000 · PBO 0.000 · Z −0.66
PLAYERTHRU · TOTMODEL P(CUT)KALSHI YESEDGEDISPERSIONNOTE
Sorted by absolute edge. Click a row to inspect its finish dispersion. Prices from Kalshi (covers Robinhood-routed markets).
FIG. 1 — FINISH DISPERSION, REN YONEZAWA (10,000 PATHS)
NOWPROJECTED CUT top 70FINISH R2
Dashed line: projected cut (top 70). 56.5% of Ren Yonezawa’s simulated paths finish on the right side of it.
MODEL SKILL-MC-V0.3 — VALIDATION
Deflated Sharpe1.000 ✓
Prob. of backtest overfit0.000 ✓
Spiegelhalter Z−0.66 ✓
Brier — model / market0.2255 / 0.2471
21,304 forecasts · 150 tournaments, walk-forward. Every published probability is written to an append-only record. Nothing is edited after the fact. See the track record →