What this site is
This site forecasts every NFL game's winning margin and every player's fantasy points — as a
range of outcomes,
not a single number — and grades its own past forecasts in public. It is a research preview, not betting advice: in testing,
the model does
not beat the bookmakers.
- How to read a band: 0 = tie. Right of 0 = this team wins by that much. Thick bar = where half of outcomes land; thin bar = nine in ten. The dot is the expected margin.
- Six words cover most labels: spread = the bookmakers' expected margin · Elo = a strength rating, 1500 is average · PPR = fantasy points · DST = a team's defence counted as one fantasy player · success rate = share of plays that gained enough · wk = week of the season.
- Two models: weekly game cards use the market-anchored game model; the season outlook, rankings and divisions use a separate, weaker season simulator that ignores bookmakers' lines. Where they meet on one screen, the weekly card is the number to trust.